POST #302: APRIL 2024 IN REVIEW

JOSH BUCHANAN

May 1, 2024

With 522 total residential sales for the month of April, it stands as one of the busiest April’s on record. That amount of sales equates to a 29% increase in sales compared to last year and a 34% increase compared to the 10-year average for April.

728 new listings were added to the market over the course of the month which is up slightly from last year and from the 5-year average. The current level of standing inventory as of April 30th was 850. However, of those 850 units, 256 are already conditionally sold. Compared to last year, there are 216 fewer units currently for sale and approximately 600 fewer compared to the 5-year average at this time of year. Back in 2017, there were 2,066 active units at the end of April.

Considering sales for April were very strong and inventory was very low, the market was very competitive. In terms of the months-of-inventory ratio, this is the most competitive that the market has been since 2007. Because of the highly-competitive market conditions, we are continuing to see upward pressure on home values.

Here’s a look at the 5-year numbers in Saskatoon for the month of April:

Ever since about late 2020, Saskatoon’s housing market has been under-supplied which is why home values have been rising after 4 consecutive years of value declines due to the market being oversupplied.

Here’s a look at the 10-year numbers:

Compared to 10-year averages, sales are up quite significantly and inventory is about half of what we’re used to seeing. While the comparison to historical averages is important, what’s more important is the current supply ratio. As of the end of April, the market has a months-of-inventory ratio of 1.63 which is the lowest monthly ratio I can recall since 2007. Any ratio below 4 months means the market is under-supplied. A ratio of 1.63 means the market is severely under-supplied.

Here are the recent months-of-inventory ratios (I:S) broken down by property type and price range:

Unsurprisingly, every single category of residential property is experiencing shortages. The worst category right now is townhouses selling under the $350,000 mark. Even detached houses in the $600,000+ range are under-supplied which isn’t common, even in competitive markets.

In order to have balanced market conditions and satisfy current demand, Saskatoon would need approximately 1,300 additional units to immediately come on the market. As long as the market sees ratios this low, there will be significant upward pressure on home prices.

As always, more stats can be found from the Saskatchewan Realtors Association here.

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